The Battle For The CPL’s Last Playoff Spot Will Be A Bloodbath

While most eyes will be watching to see if Forge clinches a regular season championship this weekend, at the opposite end of the table something great is brewing – an absolute bloodbath for the fifth and final playoff spot.

With the top four spots in the Canadian Premier League locked in by Forge, Atletico Ottawa, Cavalry, and York United respectively, the remaining four teams are all ‘one good week’ away from having their hand gripped to the very last spot, a gateway to the promised land of playoff action.

Pacific’s loss to Valour on Monday evening opened things up immensely: while the Tridents still hold onto fifth place on 28 points, the other three playoff hopefuls are now all within two points of booting them out. With three games left to play, the bottom half of the table has been set up for a thrilling finale.

Vampiric Valour?

Fans may have written off Valour when the Winnipeggers lost their opening five league matches, but they’ve now risen from the dead: having claimed seven points from their last five matches and going undefeated in that time, they’ve rocking the best form out of any bottom half team. With two of their final three games coming at home, Princess Auto Stadium could bear witness to an improbable but possible late rise as the club seeks its first-ever playoff berth.

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You have to stretch back nearly two months to find a match where Valour didn’t find the back of the net, with Winnipeg evidently enjoying a big confident boost. It may be too little, too late, but this is a squad we can’t rule out. They’ll face league giants Forge and Cavalry at home, but their last outings against them were a win and a draw, so there are points to be had. The away trip comes in a ‘VFC Derby’ against Vancouver, or what you’d call ‘a real six-pointer‘.

Could they do it? Yes, and that in and of itself represents a remarkable turnaround from where they were in the spring. Will they do it? That’s entirely up to them.

Moses Parting The Salish Sea?

In what may go down in Pacific’s favour as the best play-swap ever, the club shipped Ayman Sellouf to rival side Vancouver FC in exchange for Moses Dyer. The hungry striker went on a four-match scoring run, while Sellouf…has existed, we suppose. Those post-trade points have given Pacific hold of the fifth playoff spot for now, just one-and-a-half months after things were so bad that players were apologizing to fans.

Pacific has had a bit of an identity crisis this season. The loss of what Manny Aparicio brought to their attack was felt, but things have started to click at a crucial moment for Pacific. Right now, the spot is theirs to lose – and with all three of their remaining matches coming against top half teams, they’re in for the toughest finish out of any of the bottom four.

Can Eagles Rise?

It’s fair to say that Vancouver FC has proven fairly turbulent both on the pitch and off. Afshin Ghotbi’s side were dominant early on this season and were perched at the top of league standings for quite some time – but things have massively regressed since.

September saw the side endure four losses and one scoreless draw, with TJ Tahid scoring their only goal of the month. Still, the Eagles are just one point shy of their rivals ‘cross the Salish Sea in Pacific, and their last three matches see them face two-bottom half teams in Halifax and Vancouver before closing away to Ottleti.

It’s doable, especially if their deadline day swap for Austin Ricci works out. If not, their first two seasons will have come and went without being able to back up their early claims of title contention.

Hope In Halifax?

Patrice Gheisar’s arrival last season saw the club finish third overall, but the hangover has been real since that kitchen party. Currently dead last in the standings with players calling it ‘do or die’ time all the way back in May, Halifax has shown us some real Jekyll-and-Hyde performances in 2024.

Despite accumulating more red cards than wins, the Wanderers are still just two points away from final playoff spot. Two of their last three matches come at home, which is where all but one of their wins have been. It’s really do-or-die this time around, Halifax.

Decision Day A Great Move By League

There’s a good chance things could all come down to the final day when it comes to who’s landing the fifth and final playoff spot, which makes the league’s decision to play all four matches of its final matchday at the same time a wonderful one. It’s going to be an absolute thriller.

Dubbed ‘The Outcome’ due to an obligatory-these-days-gambling-sponsorship, all eight CPL teams will kick off at 4:00PM EST (1:00PM PT) on October 19. OneSoccer will even have each match available for free on its YouTube channel, making it perhaps the league’s most accessible matchday ever.

With that final day approaching fast, we’re going to see a lot happen between now and then – so buckle in for the ride.

Header Image Photo Credit: Pacific FC