Tiebreakers Could Give Valour Lifeline In Playoff Push

With just one match left to go, Winnipeg’s Valour FC is three points below the dreaded cutoff mark for a playoff position.

Still the only launch team in the league not to have landed a postseason berth, the pressure to make history is sure to echo around the cavernous space of Princess Auto Stadium.

For Valour to lay claim to the elusive playoff spot, they will need not only need to beat Cavalry, but also need to bank that Pacific loses out to Forge and Vancouver FC doesn’t win against Atletico Ottawa. It’s an uphill battle, but no part of the season has given an inch without blood.

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The fifth and final playoff spot is Pacific’s to lose, with the Vancouver Isle-based club resting on 31 points compared to Valour’s 28. A win guarantees they’ll go through, while a draw or loss makes things a lot more interesting. Valour must bank on a Pacific loss.

If Valour manages to finish level on points with Pacific, one would be forgiven for instinctually writing them off given their goal differential clocking in at four less as we enter the weekend, but the CPL doesn’t actually use that as the first tiebreaker.

Instead, the first tiebreaker is wins, of which they would have eight each if Pacific lose and Valour win this weekend. After that we jump straight to head-to-head records for which Valour is actually ahead in both points and goal difference in the matches between those teams.

Valour has outscored Pacific 7-4 in their four previous meetings this season. In the event they finish level on points and wins, it’s the Winnipeggers who will advance to the promised land of playoffs. That’s only if three results go in their favour on Saturday, of course, and they’ll need to collect 76 more domestic U-21 minutes to be eligible too.

The biggest task will be defeating Cavalry, a perennial title contender who’ll be fighting to secure a second-place finish and the most direct path to the 2024 CPL Final.

Beating Cavalry is something Phillip Dos Santos has done three times before: once in 2021, once in 2022, and once in 2023. If one win per year is the quota, now would be a storybook time for Dos Santos to notch in 2024’s entry.

The bouts between them this year have been fairly even contests: two draws where both sides found goals, and one result where Cavalry snuck a one-nil win. That was their last home match against Cavalry, but fans in attendance will be hoping to turn that scoreline around this weekend.

All four of the final week’s matches will kick off at the same time on Saturday, October 19, making ‘The Outcome’ an absolute nailbiter as three times remain in contention for the final playoff spot. Each match is available on OneSoccer’s YouTube channel, but fans can also tune in to the action on OneSoccer, fuboTV, and Telus Optik.

Header Image Photo Credit: Canadian Premier League